"This book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand where China is headed — and how the United States should respond."
Summary
The Fragile Dragon offers a clear-eyed examination of China’s rise and its hidden vulnerabilities.
Drawing on the author’s experience as president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai under Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden, the book analyzes key business and political developments from both Western and Chinese perspectives.
The narrative intertwines the story of his family — including an opium addict, an American codebreaker, and a Chinese revolutionary — with broader geopolitical themes. As an American businessman of Chinese ancestry, the author had extraordinary access to leaders on both sides, giving him remarkable insight into why tensions between the US and China have escalated so sharply, threatening global commerce and stability.
Finally, Mr. Gibbs offers guidance on how business people can think about China and what it takes to succeed, whether it’s navigating the narrow corridor between what China wants and what the US will allow, partnering with rather than competing against local players, or structuring businesses to minimize risk if a catastrophic event takes place, as appears more and more likely.
Author Biography
Mr. Gibbs’ career spans Asia and Silicon Valley over more than three decades. He worked for The Boston Consulting Group in Shanghai, then for Apple and other tech companies. As an investment banker at HSBC, he advised technology and media clients in Beijing, Shanghai, and Taipei.
Mr. Gibbs currently teaches at the University of San Francisco while writing and giving talks on China. He edited and co-authored his first book, Selling to China: Stories of Success, Failure, and Constant Change, published by Palgrave Macmillan (2023). He has written op-eds for the Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, the San Francisco Chronicle, and other publications.
He holds a BA in economics from UCLA and an MBA from UC Berkeley. He lives in San Francisco and Shanghai.
Advance praise for The Fragile Dragon:
“The US and China need each other economically and geopolitically. The Fragile Dragon describes China’s new environment in a way that others have sensed but struggled to articulate. Having spent years engaging China at the highest levels, I know how easy it is to mistake size for strength and confidence for stability. Ker Gibbs brings rare credibility to this conversation — grounded in decades of firsthand experience at the intersection of trade, diplomacy, and business. He shows that China is neither collapsing nor invincible, but a complex system marked by real achievements and real vulnerabilities. As Gibbs understands better than most, strong commercial ties help stabilize the broader relationship. This book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand where China is headed — and how the United States should respond.”
– Max Baucus, US Ambassador to China (2014-2017)
US Senator (1978-2014)
“The Fragile Dragon depicts a China that still heavily consumes American products, services, and culture—but now selectively and strategically, driven by ambitions to rival and displace U.S. influence. Gibbs shows that China is no longer just a marketplace: its leaders are both visionaries and provocateurs, its people hold conflicting feelings about America, and its national goals may clash with American business and political norms. Yet American engagement remains essential—not only for selling goods and services, but for learning how both nations can compete peacefully and prosper together.”
– Yawei Liu, Senior Advisor on China
The Carter Center
“The Fragile Dragon offers a clear-eyed and deeply informed examination of China as both a formidable competitor and a profoundly vulnerable system. It reminds us that power built on control, fear, and opacity carries inherent limits. Nowhere is this clearer than Taiwan, where Beijing’s inability to tolerate a free Chinese society reveals the fragility beneath its strength. As the United States navigates an era of heightened risk with China—across trade, technology, and potential military conflict—this book is essential reading. It challenges simplistic narratives and helps policymakers, business leaders, and citizens understand the real stakes of competition with China, and the dangers of miscalculation.”
– James Stavridis, Admiral US Navy (retired)
Supreme Allied Commander at NATO (2009-2013)
“I read “The Fragile Dragon” with great interest and admiration. It is lively, personal, and rich in detail. The book traces a long and unusual journey through China’s reform era and the evolution of US–China relations. The author’s firsthand experiences give the narrative an immediacy and texture that few accounts can match.”
– Weijian Shan, Executive Chairman of PAG
Author of “Out of the Gobi,” “Money Games” and “Money Machine”
“The Fragile Dragon is a colorful and instructive book about US-China relations with a special focus on a key driver of the bilateral relationship that still doesn’t get enough attention – business ties. From his arrival in China in 1985 through the subsequent decades, Mr. Gibbs had a front-row seat at one of the most remarkable dramas of our times: China’s amazing economic development, the impressive growth of US companies in China, and the subsequent deterioration of US-China bilateral ties. The book is filled with fascinating examples of how this evolution played out in real life, as Mr. Gibbs taps into his rich experience as a banker, investor, business chamber president, and eyewitness to how China’s rise has contributed to a redefinition of US-China relations.”
– Kenneth Jarrett, former US Consul General, Shanghai
“Few relationships are as complex as that between the United States and China. The Fragile Dragon offers a realistic and sobering guide to how history, politics, and commerce intertwine. Drawing on deeply personal experience from someone who lived through China’s rise, the book presents trenchant yet balanced views of the growing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Readers with China experience will appreciate its tour de force through China’s transformation, while newcomers will gain a clear-eyed understanding of what it truly means to do business in China.”
– Till Vestring, former Senior Partner
Bain & Company in Asia
“Ker Gibbs’ book is a gem. Admirably, it is neither typical punditry nor pedantic. The reminiscences and journeys told in the book are unvarnished and made all the more interesting by his novelist’s eye for relevant details. It is a book for people with a casual interest in China and US-China relations as well as those with a deeper interest. For me, it is an engaging read that presents, at times, different and challenging but instructive perspectives.”
– Bob Ching, Founding Partner (retired)
The Boston Consulting Group in China
“The Fragile Dragon offers a fair and balanced view. This book is not shy about calling out China’s lack of transparency and other shortcomings, and at the same time offers readers a fresh view of what China has gotten right. The Fragile Dragon will challenge some of the popular views the reader may have from mass media reporting and will give you valuable insights into the inner workings of the Chinese system. It’s a refreshing read that gives you a front-row seat to experience how China has evolved over the last 30+ years from a “copycat nation” to one of the most innovative countries in the world.”
– Manoj Mehta, CEO of Naked Group
“The Fragile Dragon offers an excellent and accessible introduction to contemporary China while also providing a wealth of insights on the economics and politics of doing business in China that even old hands will find valuable. Gibbs uses his and his family’s personal experiences in China over the past several decades to share an engaging ground-level perspective on the evolution of US-China relations.”
– Peter Lorentzen, Professor of Economics
University of San Francisco
Ker Gibbs offers a firsthand and balanced account of how global companies engaged with China’s rise — capturing both the opportunities it created and the strategic trade-offs firms made along the way. Drawing on lived experience rather than ideology, the book helps readers understand how China’s economic model evolved and what its lessons mean for the future of global business.
– Bill Russo, Founder and CEO of Automobility